Donald Trump continues to befuddle serious political observers and scare many ordinary folks who would not normally pay much attention to the daily utterances of the nation’s president. His Twitter charge against Barack Obama last week is but one of many statements and actions that raise questions about his competency to be president, let alone his psychological fitness for the job.
Viewed from the perspective of what would pass as the bounds of reasonable conduct by any president of the country, Trump’s performance in the first two months of his presidency falls significantly outside of those bounds. No president has ever shown so little understanding of the responsibilities of the job or seemed as poorly prepared, temperamentally or experientially, for the office. And so, almost from the first days of his administration, Trump has been the subject of impeachment rumblings, and those rumblings are becoming more pronounced with each indication that this is a man who, simply stated, isn’t up to the requirements of the job, and, getting to the heart of the concern, may be a threat to the country’s existence as a democratic republic.
Impeachment, however, isn’t the only legal way to remove a sitting president from office. The 25th Amendment to the Constitution contains a second, albeit less decisive method. Added to the Constitution in 1967, Section 4 of this amendment provides for the assumption by the Vice President of the duties of the President under a prescribed method whenever the President is “disabled.” A statement of the President’s disability, under the amendment, must be declared in writing by the Vice President and a majority of the President’s cabinet officers, whereupon the Vice President is immediately empowered with the President’s authority.
Impeachment, on the face of it, looks harder to accomplish, since it requires, first, an indictment (the actual Bill of Impeachment) from the House of Representatives and then conviction in the Senate (by two-thirds of the sitting members of that body). Bills of Impeachment against a sitting president have been passed by the House twice in the country’s history: in 1868 against Andrew Johnson (who had become president when Lincoln was assassinated) and in 1998 against Bill Clinton. Neither president was convicted by the House. Johnson survived by one vote (35-19 in favor of conviction); Clinton prevailed on a 50-50 vote. (Richard Nixon, contrary to some misconceptions, was not impeached. A Bill of Impeachment was voted out of committee in the House, but it never got to a floor vote because Nixon almost immediately resigned after the committee vote.)
Compared with the complex procedure required for Impeachment and conviction, the provisions of the 25th Amendment look preciously simple. All that would be required for removal of Trump under Section 4 of Amendment XXV would be for Mike Pence to get eight cabinet officers to join him in signing a declaration that Donald Trump was unable to perform his duties. The amendment does not specify what the nature of the impairment must be. And that fact would probably lead to a court case filed by Trump if his effort under the amendment to get himself reinstated failed. (The amendment provides that the president can regain his office by declaring in writing that he is again able to perform his duties.)
Impeachment and conviction do not provide the ousted president with recourse to the courts. In that sense it is far more definitive and conclusive than the Twenty-Fifth Amendment option. But neither alternative is going to be effective against Donald Trump, because neither will be attempted for one very simple reason: he’s too popular.
Trump may not appear popular in the sense of being a decisive victor in the 2016 election. As is widely known (albeit perhaps not by the president himself), he won narrowly in the Electoral College but received almost three million fewer popular votes. In terms of percentages, since the election he has been getting approval ratings no higher than 45 percent and as low as 40 percent (one poll had him as low as 36). Those are not numbers that indicate massive popularity, especially this early in a president’s term. (Presidents are usually most popular on first taking office, before they actually make decisions that tick off people.)
But if you look deeper into those numbers, you’ll see why Trump is safe from forced removal from office. His positive approval rating from Republicans is sky-high (around 90 percent). Yes, Democrats disapprove of him in equally high numbers, but on the question of removing Trump from office via either of the methods available, they really don’t count.
Contrary to popular belief, impeachment is a political (rather than a judicial) act. It becomes a viable option only when a president’s popularity with voters who matter to those doing the impeaching erodes badly. And with the Republicans firmly in control of Congress, the voters that matter are Republican voters, who are, to this point, pleased by what the Trump presidency is providing them. These are voters who like it when the stock market is up and unemployment is down and who like the nationalist message that Trump is spouting. They also aren’t all that upset to think that Barack Obama engaged in criminal activity (as the Trump Twitter charge indicates). And that wall he still claims he’ll get built with Mexican pesos? They’re all for it. (They’re pretty happy with the travel ban, too.)
As long as Trump has overall popularity ratings in the 40 percent range, and, more importantly, is widely loved by his base, his presidency is secure from impeachment. And it’s secure from the Twenty-Fifth Amendment option as well. Mike Pence wouldn’t even think of moving against a man who has that kind of following within his party, and Trump’s cabinet officers would be even more intractable on that point.
Math is math; political reality is political reality. Donald Trump is the elected president of the country and, for at least as long as he remains popular within the rank and file of his party, he’ll be free of the threat of removal from office. That might not be the news most Democrats want to hear, and it might not even be the news that many elected Republicans especially savor, but it is the fact of America’s presidency at this point in the country’s history.
Things can change, of course, but until they change in such a way as to make Trump unpopular with the folks who elected him, the rest of us are stuck with him.