Donald Trump is now the president of the United States. He took his oath at noon on January 20, and the Constitution again worked to provide for a peaceful transition of power from one duly elected person to another. But beneath the surface of all the pomp and circumstance of this particular inaugural a whole lot of stuff was revealing what the next four years are likely to be for America and the world.
The new president immediately delivered the kind of inaugural speech that indicated that merely being sworn in was not going to change the man. The speech was right out of the Trump campaign stump speeches that were repeatedly broadcast on cable news stations for over a year. It offered nothing in the way of reconciliation; it gave no reason to expect a softening of positions or a willingness to listen to other perspectives; it had few, if any, uplifting and unifying phrases. Instead, it railed about the “carnage” that exists in the nation’s inner cities and of a country losing it promise, military dominance and wealth. It was, in short, a jeremiad from a man who really doesn’t believe America is a great country anymore.
And his fans – the 30 percent of the electorate that voted for him – loved it. The rest of the country? Not so much, if the following day’s events are any indication. For on January 21, literally millions of Americans marched in opposition to just about everything that Donald Trump has so far shown he wants his presidency to accomplish. The scenes of the marches in the many cities that held them were remarkable. Dominated by women, who for many reasons have the greatest reasons to feel aggrieved by Trump’s inauguration, the marches were peaceful and fervent. The interests represented ranged from women’s rights to climate change, with signs that proclaimed things like “I’m Your Boss Now, Trump. Shape Up Or You’re Fired” and pled simply to “Build bridges not walls.”
Trump reacted as we’ve come to expect. He tweeted angrily, claiming that his inaugural was attended or watched by more people than ever. That claim was called untrue by several media reports (notably the New York Times) which brazenly noted in a headline that Trump had lied (“With False Claims, Trump Attacks Media on Turnout”). That kind of response only fueled the flames, and before the sun had set on Trump’s second full day in office, he had both his press secretary, Sean Spicer, and his number one media mouthpiece, Kellyanne Conway, attacking the press in what promises to be a four-year battle over conflicting versions of the truth.
Ms. Conway may have revealed more than she wanted when she “defended” the president by saying that something she called “alternative facts” can still represent the truth. The interviewer’s response said it all: “Look,” said NBC’s Chuck Todd, “alternative facts are not facts. They’re falsehoods.”
And thus is the stage set for what promises to be a contentious, if not angry, battle for the soul of the country, with Trump spouting falsehoods and otherwise appealing to the base fears and prejudices of his followers and the rest of the country and the media standing up for reason and truthfulness. It isn’t going to be pretty, which is not to say that it won’t end well.
The enigma about Trump is that he seems to succeed in spite of himself. That, at least, has been his pattern to date, not just in his brief political career, but in his business and entertainment careers as well. Even his personal life, despite having two failed marriages before his current one, with children from all three who all appear to be adoring progeny, seems to qualify as happy and successful. So, let’s not assume he will preside over a failed presidency, even if the early signs are suggestive of one.
Trump is not going to change. He isn’t going to grow into the office he now holds. He will be who he is, and my guess is that he will continue to befuddle his political opponents (including those within his party, and I fully expect more Republican opposition to surface in time). Whether he will have the competence (or even the interest) to take the job seriously enough to actually promote positive changes that inure to the benefit of many Americans is entirely problematic. And whether he will have the temperament and intelligence to deal effectively and constructively with foreign leaders and enemies of American interests is absolutely implausible.
Trump’s biggest immediate problem is going to be the media, who are not going to react well to his antagonistic tweets or to his disregard for the truth. Reporters and op-ed columnists are going to be his scourge unless and until he finds a way to accord them the respect their positions (and the Constitution) demand. He can play the “evil media” card for a while, but ultimately, the power of the pen will be stronger than the power of the sword, and he will fall hard if he is then found to be corrupt or treacherous.
The threat to his presidency posed by the millions who marched on the day after his inauguration will depend on whether that passion is sustained and whether it is will largely depend on Trump’s actions. If he moderates his positions on issues he has been vehement about to this point (Obamacare, climate change, immigration, abortion rights) and nominates a centrist for the Supreme Court (to fill the Scalia vacancy), the hostility will dissipate. But if he continues to sound like candidate Trump and act that way as well, he will likely face a succession of “marches” and protests and civil unrest that will make the political upheaval that forced Lyndon Johnson from office in an earlier time look tame by comparison.
With much of the civilized world still in shock, the age of Trump is just beginning. It figures to be a frightening period in American history, one which will require constant vigilance. Whether the country – indeed, whether humanity – will survive it is far from certain.