Taking Stock after Eight Years: The Obama Legacy

              Barack Obama completes his second term in office in a day or so, and before his record is affected by early decisions by his successor, it’s time to assess the impact of his presidency and what is likely to be his and its legacy.  In doing so, I don’t pretend to offer a historian’s unbiased perspective, both because those appraisals are best made at least a decade, if not more, after the president’s term has ended, and because I am not entirely objective.  I liked the president, even as I was disappointed in some of his decisions and judgments.

              And without making any attempt to offer an exhaustive list, here are my thoughts on his administration’s accomplishments and disappointments as both the nation’s chief executive and its commander-in-chief.

              On the domestic side, Obama banked his entire first term on passage of health care reform and much of his second term on its implementation.  He now faces the loss of whatever legacy he could claim from Obamacare as his successor is committed to repealing the law (and possibly replacing it).  But until the A.C.A. is repealed, it stands as a monumental accomplishment.  It provided health care and medical insurance to millions of Americans who had previously been without recourse when they were sick and who received nothing in preventive care when they weren’t.

              The law was messy.  It only worked well in relative terms.  The roll-out was terrible, with website snafus that created major discontent.  And Obama misled many recipients by saying that families could keep their doctors, when, in fact, many previously insured individuals and families could not.  More frustration occurred when monthly premiums and co-pays increased (as many did last year).  But Obamacare did add benefits (e.g., pre-existing conditions are now guaranteed coverage) that had previously been unheard of, and it did reduce the acceleration of health care costs as a segment of the national economy.

              Mainly, Obama gets credit for health care reform just for getting it done.  It had been attempted by Republican and Democratic predecessors since Harry Truman’s presidency, and only Obama was able to push it through and get it enacted.  And if his successor does replace it with better coverage, Obama will still deserve no small amount of credit for that accomplishment, since it would not have occurred had he not pushed his bill into law first.

              Obama also deserves credit for advances in human rights.  On his watch gay rights were significantly advanced, first with the repeal of “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell,” and ultimately with the Supreme Court’s declaration that gay marriage is a constitutional right.  He was less successful in promoting improved race relations as the end of his term saw the schism between the African-American community and law enforcement over police shootings of black men.  The advent of “Black Lives Matter” may ultimately prove to be a positive development in American society, but it has created more polarization as Obama’s term ends.

              As regards the economy, Obama’s record is positive as compared to when he assumed office.  Unemployment is significantly reduced (4.7 percent last month, from a high of ten percent in the first year of his presidency).  The economy is stable, if not booming, as his term ends, with annual growth rates in the range of 2.5 percent (hardly cause for rejoicing, but a far cry from the recessionary figures he inherited). 

              And just this month, real wages showed a marked increase for working- and middle-class earners for the first time in several decades.  Obama also merits praise for saving the auto industry in his first term, at a time when political opponents were strongly opposed to his bail-out of General Motors and Chrysler.  And his stimulus package, pushed through Congress with virtually no support from Republicans, kept the Great Recession from becoming a second Great Depression.

              Obama was not successful in curbing gun violence despite his fervent attempts to get minimal restraints on gun ownership passed (restricting sales to the mentally ill and to those on terrorist watch lists), and the level of gun violence in the country remains a source of anguish as he leaves office, with the latest shooting at an airport in Florida leaving five more dead.  Obama’s inability to overcome the power of the NRA says much about the degree to which gun ownership is engrained in the culture of the nation.  It is more a reflection on the state of the country than on his presidency that gun control has become a seemingly impossible issue to move forward at all since the last meaningful legislation was enacted some twenty years ago.

              With respect to terrorism, Obama succeeded in ending the War on Terror.  That victory was pyrrhic, however, as it only required that he no longer use the term.  He also “brought Osama bin Laden to justice,” but actual domestic terrorist attacks continue to plague the nation, and it cannot be denied that, while Obama is not the “founder of ISIS” (as his successor claimed in the presidential campaign), terrorist cells, groups, and movements did rise and flourish on his watch.  And even as it is losing geographic control in its nascent caliphate, ISIS continues to influence, if not sponsor, attacks in the U.S. and world-wide.  Obama kept the country free of another 9/11, but he has not removed the threat of terrorism, and, in many ways, it is more prevalent now than ever.

              In other international areas, Obama’s record is more positive.  He has curtailed Iran’s nuclear program, overcoming significant opposition in Congress and from Israel, in the deal with Iran.  And he has placed the U.S. on the side of most of the civilized world in agreeing to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.  Both of those agreements are now at risk as his successor has vowed to void the deal with Iran and pull out of the climate change agreement.  But doing so may appear less desirable once Mr. Trump gains a complete understanding of what both deals accomplish, and for achieving both, Obama deserves credit for his leadership and persistence.

              In other progress towards a safer world, Obama reduced the threat of nuclear weapons with the treaty with Russia that reduced each nation’s nuclear stockpiles from 2,200 to 1,550.  Again, his successor is talking about rejecting that treaty, too (a truly scary thought). 

              In fact, much of the Obama legacy is at risk with the advent of the Trump administration.  But Obama cannot control what his successor does, any more than he can control events that make his legacy look better or worse.  So it is with every president.  Each can only do what seems right at the time, can only act to reduce threats and recover from crises that exist at the time, can only prepare for what appears to be foreseeable at the time. 

              My guess is that Obama will be viewed favorably by historians, but no one can know what the future will bring.  What is clear and will not change is the grace and style with which Obama and his wife inhabited the White House.  Their marriage and their family were a shining light for all Americans, and the fact that the worst of Obama’s private life that made news was that he occasionally snuck a cigarette when Michelle wasn’t looking says legions about how honorably he and she fulfilled their public obligations as the nation’s first couple and first family.  Whatever scandals are alleged to have occurred within his administration, none developed from his marriage or his family, and for that seemingly small accomplishment he gave all of us reason to be proud of our president. 

              My guess is that he will be increasingly missed over the course of the next four years.