Ever since Donald Trump moved ahead of the pack in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, many Democrats have been anticipating an easy victory for Hillary Clinton in the fall campaign. But now that Mr. Trump has effectively nailed down the nomination (becoming the “presumptive nominee”), those same Democrats are steeling themselves for a much tougher race, with many wondering how such a buffoon as Trump can be polling so well.
And those polls did take an ominous turn last week, with one showing the popular vote essentially dead even and others in three battle-ground states (Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida) all within the margin of error. Polls this early in the campaign are problematic at best, and the particular polls in question (Quinnipiac) may be outliers. But support for Trump has been underestimated from the start of his campaign, and support for Clinton has failed to coalesce sufficiently even for her to dispense with the 74-year-old “democratic socialist” who is giving her fits in the Democratic race for the nomination.
But the road to the nomination for Bernie Sanders is almost non-existent at this point, and Hillary will ultimately secure the Democratic nod. By then, the race may already be favoring Trump if he continues to build his support among Republicans. (That he will continue to do so is becoming more apparent every day. Most Republicans will end up voting for the candidate of their party, as will most Democrats.) In any event, here are a few reasons why the Democrats need to be worried:
o Trump knows how to work the media and the social networks. Say what you will about Trump’s lack of qualifications to actually be the president, but he is head and shoulders more qualified to handle the modern media and their cyberspace equivalents. He is nothing if not a media personality, both from his long run as the host of his TV show and for his adroit use of Twitter. Trump keeps himself in the public eye, and he does it with flair. In show business, he would be the equivalent of a P.T. Barnum, the nineteenth century showman/huckster who is credited with the line, “There’s a sucker born every minute.” Trump has figured out how to keep himself relevant, where relevant means talked about. He takes a punch, doesn’t even flinch, and throws two. Who else with his history as a womanizer would be able to unabashedly attack Hillary as an “enabler” of an abuser?
o Trump has figured out what the public wants to hear. He has identified the anger and frustration in the electorate and projects the attitude many of the disgruntled in the country want to see. He is the anti-establishment candidate who doesn’t care about being politically incorrect. And that image allows him to say outrageous things and only gain support as a result. Trump is clearly unqualified to be the president by any traditional standards. He is still, almost a year after announcing his candidacy, woefully ignorant of the major issues in the country, but his supporters don’t care. They just believe in his “vision,” which is best exemplified by his promise to “make America great again.” No one ever asks him what that means, because he establishes as a given that the country used to be great and isn’t anymore. And for his supporters, that message is all they need to hear.
o Trump lies without compunction. You might say that all politicians lie, but most do so within certain parameters. They will fudge or stretch the truth, by, for example, citing a study they say supports their position, when, in fact, the study only acknowledges that there is minimal support for the position. Trump will claim a study supports his position when there is no study at all. And then, when he is asked how he can claim such a study exists, he will either say convincingly that it does but it is being hidden or he will change the subject. And on those rare instances when Trump is actually caught in a lie, he will turn the attack on the accuser or, again, just change the subject. He gets away with these obvious ploys because he is so good at it that many observers fail to realize that they have been had. Again, the master showman/huckster controls the debate, even when he really doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
o The voters don’t trust Hillary. This one is ironic, since, of the two, the one who is clearly less trustworthy (and reliable) is Trump. But Hillary has allowed an image to be projected on her that says “I’m not trustworthy.” Where does this image come from? Largely it comes from her connection with her husband, who was (and is) much more the shyster than she. But it also comes from being a traditional politician who seeks positions that win votes instead of stating positions and then seeking votes. Hillary may or may not be guilty of that charge, but Trump is going to hit her with it incessantly (“crooked Hillary”), and because she won’t seek to refute it, he’ll make it stick. She, on the other hand, will “take the high road” and seek to speak to the real issues in the campaign. In most election years, that strategy would work well, leaving the scoundrel in the gutter and refusing to join him there. But this year is not a normal year. This year, the voters have been conditioned for dirty tactics. Trump has so conditioned them, and he’ll have a field-day with a defense-less Clinton as she tries to show voters that he is unqualified while he tells them they can’t trust her.
No one really knows what a Donald Trump presidency would mean for the country. That alone is reason enough to seek his defeat. But the reality is that many Americans don’t care if he isn’t qualified or that he doesn’t know enough of the nitty-gritty details of policy issues. They just want someone whom they can believe in, even if what he’s telling them to believe in is largely ridiculous.
The only standards that matter are constitutional. Anything else is specious. If that’s not good enough then we need to update the constitution to reflect that.