Baseball’s Playoff Season: A Look Ahead

As baseball’s regular season comes to a dramatic close this weekend, with some playoff slots still to be determined, I’m providing an early look at the chances of the likely contenders for the most time-honored championship in sports.   First, though, here’s a short primer on how the playoffs work.

The current plan, in effect since last year, has each league’s three division winners locked into an initial best-of-five round, wherein one of the three teams plays the winner of a play-in game (or a single-elimination game, if you prefer) between the top two non-division winning teams in each league.  In the National League, those two teams will likely be the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds, unless one of them overtakes the St. Louis Cardinals in the last regular-season games to be played this weekend.  In the American League, the likely play-in teams appear to be the Tampa Bay Rays and the Cleveland Indians, although the Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals, New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles have been in the running until this week and are still not eliminated as of this writing.

I’ll proceed on the assumption (for purposes of simplicity, if nothing else) that the Cardinals hold onto their top spot in the NL Central and that the Rays and Indians maintain their positions as the AL wild card teams.  What would the likely scenario be from there?

The wild-card teams in each league with the better end-of-season records will be the home teams in the play-in, single-elimination game.  In the NL that home-field advantage could make a big difference, as either Cincinnati or Pittsburgh could survive the succeeding two rounds to get to the World Series (both teams are that good).  In the AL, neither the Indians nor the Rays are likely to challenge any of the division winners (the Oakland A’s, the Detroit Tigers and the Boston Red Sox).

I have an easier time analyzing the prospects of the American League teams, because the Red Sox and Tigers are so strong on paper, and have had successful seasons, and because the A’s, despite their lack of a great lineup or standout starting pitching, have put together an amazing run to win their second straight Western Division AL crown.  So, I’ll predict that whichever of those three the winner of the play-in game plays will prevail.

So let’s start there.  If the Red Sox end with the best overall record in the league, as I expect they will, they would play the winner of an Oakland-Detroit best-of-five series.  As between those two teams, I have to go with the Tigers, partly because they have the best hitter in baseball (Miguel Cabrera, assuming he’s healthy enough to play; he’s been hampered with a late-season injury) and because they have a solid starting staff, led by 20-game winner, Max Scherzer and former Cy Young winner, Justin Verlander.  Oakland could surprise the Tigers, but on paper, I don’t see it.

Then we’d move to a best-of-seven league championship series between Boston and Detroit, and that would be one great series.  The Red Sox would have a slight edge, mainly because of their home-field advantage (four home games out of seven), but either team could prevail.  As is true in most playoff rounds, pitching usually decides the issue.

The Red Sox can match Detroit’s aces with Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, and, while they don’t have a one-two punch like Cabrera and Prince Fielder, they can score plenty of runs with a lineup led by Justin Pedroia and David Ortiz.

So, I’ll go with the Red Sox as the AL rep in the World Series.  Now, for the tougher (to predict) league, I readily admit I really don’t have a clue.

All five teams, at their best, are just plain scary.  Of the five, I guess I’d call the Pirates the weakest, but it isn’t by much.  They have played great ball all year, and have added some punch to their offense with the late season acquisitions of Marlon Byrd and Justin Morneau.  And they already had MVP candidate Andrew McCutcheon and home-run slugger Pedro Alvarez.

But Cincinnati’s Reds are a little more threatening with the likes of Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, and I think they have a little more pitching than Pittsburgh (especially with lights-out flame thrower Aroldis Chapman as their closer).

But then we get to the Cardinals, who are like an offensive juggernaut, especially if they get Allen Craig back from the disabled list (a good possibility).  Add him to a lineup that has the three Matts (Holliday, Carpenter, and Adams) along with Yadier Molina (also a top catcher) and Carlos Beltran, and you have a run-scoring machine.  St. Louis should be a little suspect in the pitching department, but they’ve been doing just fine for most of the year with two young hurlers (Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller) behind ace Adam Wainwright.

Further complicating the NL is the question of home-field advantage in the best-of-five and best-of-seven rounds.  At this point, the Braves have the edge for best overall record, but that could change during this last five or six of games, with the Cardinals and Dodgers both close.

The Braves are also intimidating on offense, with possible batting champion Chris Johnson and MVP candidate Freddie Freeman supported by the likes of Justin Upton, Jason Heyward (recovered from his broken jaw), Brian McCann and Evan Gattis.  The Braves have good starting pitching and the almost unhittable Craig Kimbrel to close out games if they lead after eight innings.

And then we have the Dodgers, who went on a 42 and 8 run in mid-season and then suffered another string of injuries at season’s end.  All I will say about my team (full disclosure) is that if they can get healthy (and they’re working on it as the season comes to a close) they will be as unbeatable as any team in either league.  Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke could be the two best pitchers in the playoffs, and Hanley Ramirez and Yasiel Puig could be the most dangerous hitters.

‘Nuff said.  Play ball.